We Don't Mean a Thing if We Ain't Got that Swing (State)

Is Pennsylvania a "swing state" no more?

Well, folks, it appears that both presidential campaigns have decided to leave us Pennsylvanians alone for a while.

Mary Wilson, over at WHYY's Newsworks web page, reports that Mitt Romney and Barack Obama seem to agree on one thing after all -- Pennsylvania may not be a swing state in the November election.


"Shortly after the Republican National Convention, two Romney-allied super PACs announced they would pull their television ads out of Pennsylvania, saying the state isn't competitive for Romney at the moment," Wilson reported.


"A superPAC supporting President Barack Obama followed suit, citing polls showing the commonwealth is leaning toward Obama. Then, the president's own re-election campaign halted ads."


"That's pretty telling when you consider the fact that four years ago, when you look at the entire presidential campaign in its totality, more money was spent on Pennsylvania television than any other state in the union," Franklin and Marshall pollster G. Terry Madonna told Wilson.


Although Pennsylvania has gone for the Democrat in the last five presidential elections, the margin has been pretty close, despite the Democrats having a registration edge.


Back in 2008, there were just six swing states in play at the end of the election, while the 2004 campaign featured 11 swing states, according to the May 9 edition of The Constitution Daily, the daily publication of Philadelphia's own National Constitution Center.


They reported as follows:

The New York Times list for 2012 includes Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.

The USA Today swing state map in May.

The USA Today/Gallup list has the same nine states as the New York Times, with the addition of New Mexico, North Carolina, and Michigan.

The Politico list excludes Michigan and calls New Mexico, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin “soft” swing states.

The Real Clear Politics projected electoral map adds Maine, Minnesota, New Jersey, Oregon, Georgia, Indiana, South Carolina, and Montana to the list of potential swing states.

 A "soft" swing state? What the heck is that?

"The key to watch," the site wrote in May, "which states get the most campaign spending in proportion to their electoral counts."

So if spending goes down, especially compared to our fat 20 electoral collage votes, perhaps that does mean we are soft.

More recently, last month to be exact, Philly.com ran the analysis by The Constitution Daily which indicated that the election may, as usual, be decided in Ohio and in Florida, at least if campaign spending is the lead indicator.

This is how The Guardian newspaper saw the numbers Aug. 24.

"Among the eight states, Ohio leads Florida as a recipient of campaign financing, with $56 million, compared with $51 million for the Sunshine State," they reported.

The nine states that mattered, according to that analysis, were Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Virginia.

"All nine states were won by Barack Obama as the Democratic candidate in 2008. It looks like eight of the states are in play, while both campaigns are ignoring Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral votes, apparently assuming those votes will go to the president," wrote Scott Bomboy, The Constitution Daily's Editor-in-chief.

"In fact, more TV advertising money has been spent in New Hampshire, with its four electoral votes, than in Pennsylvania," he wrote.

Two Pennsylvania governors, the current and the former, both think its a mistake for the campaigns to count Pennsylvania out.

Gov. Tom Corbett told Newsworks that he thinks Pennsylvania is winnable for Romney.

His predecessor, Ed Rendell, said he believes the Romney campaign's pull-out of resources is a feint and that money will roll back in closer to the election in an attempt to swing the state Romney's way at the last minute.

Brian Williams singled out Montgomery County as
a place where the election would be decided.

Only time will tell.

In the meantime, at least we'll be spared the bulk of the campaign commercials.

I must confess I found the idea that the election might be decided among just a few states, Pennsylvania being one of them, kind of exciting.

In fact NBC anchor Brian Williams told Daily Show host Jon Stewart that the election would be decided "in places like Montgomery County right outside Philadelphia."

I got chills.

But I also felt burdened with the potential responsibility of the outcome.

"Really? You want us to decide? Have you met us"

As Uncle Ben told Peter Parker, with great power comes great responsibility.

Expert Says Area Will be Key in 2012 Presidential Election

Blogger's Note: The following was submitted by Eileen Dautrich, president of the TriCounty Area Chamber of Commerce, and is presented here with some alteration.

POTTSTOWN -- Two days after last week's election results were known, Dr. G. Terry Madonna, Director of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs, Professor of Public Affairs, and Director of the Franklin and Marshall Keystone Poll at Franklin and Marshall College, was the guest speaker for the chamber's monthly membership breakfast.

Dr. G. Terry Madonna addresses the Chamber of Commerce

He informed the region's business leaders that Pennsylvania, and the counties of the southeast region in particular, will make a vital difference in deciding next year's presidential election.

This is not just whimsy. Madonna has the political background to know what he's talking about.

For more than 30 years,he has taught and written about his two academic specialties:  the American presidency, and American political parties and political behavior.  As a pollster in recent years, he has written extensively about voters and voting behavior.  He holds a Ph.D. in political history from the University of Delaware.

Madonna told the audience the 2012 presidential election should be viewed in a historical perspective, not a partisan one. 

He encouraged attendees not to think about this issue from a party point of view, but look at the historical situations under which presidents have been reelected and when they have not been reelected.  

Dr. Madonna said the nation's post-WWII politics have differed from the rest of American history.  

The main difference, said Madonna, is that up until WWII the government was ruled by one party or the other for long periods of time. Democrats were in power until the time of Lincoln and then Republicans ruled until WWII.   

Since then, we have had five Democratic leaders and five Republican leaders.  This instability is relatively new in our country and makes Dr. Madonna’s comments about voter behavior both interesting and relevant.

 

From there Madonna explained how all states are not equal in the electoral process.  He made the point that the politically predictable states such as New York, California, and Texas will not make a difference in this upcoming election.  

Madonna said that there are 10 to 12 states that will matter, the swing states, and in each of those states, Pennsylvania being one of them, only a handful of politically unpredictable counties will decide the 2012 race.  

Of the seven counties in Pennsylvania considered to have the most swing voters, four of them are right here in our area, Bucks, Montgomery, Chester, and Delaware Counties.  

Madonna took this even further by observing that in those swing counties, the voters most likely to swing back in forth politically are college educated women. Madonna’s point was that the election will come down to a small group of people.

Madonna also pointed out how different this election will be from those previous.  

Right now the national debate is centered on the economy and debts and deficits. The battle will be over whether government should do more or they should do less. 

Madonna pointed out that no president has been reelected with a job performance rating under 50% and no president has ever been reelected with unemployment over 7%.  

At the time of the breakfast, President Obama has an approval rating of 45% and unemployment is 9%. 

Before joining the faculty at Franklin and Marshall, Madonna was Professor and Chair of the Government Department and headed the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Millersville University.

Madonna founded the Keystone Poll in 1992, the oldest survey produced exclusively in Pennsylvania.

In 2008, the poll’s name was officially changed to the Franklin & Marshall College Poll.  

In this capacity, some of his media clients include the Philadelphia Daily News, WGAL-TV (Lancaster) to name a few.  He has also polled for KYW-TV, Fox 29 – TV, and the Comcast Network along with several others.

The sponsors of this even were: Boyertown Salvation Army, Pottstown Salvation Army, and Wanner Associates, Inc.

* * *

New Members were also inducted: AAMCO of Pottstown; ACN, Inc.; Financial Independence Planning, LLC; The Gallery School of Pottstown; J & J Environmental, Inc.; Miller’s Insurance Agency, Inc.; Pottstown Quality Inn; PuroClean Disaster Restoration Services; Tango Media Management; Visiting Angels; WBZH – 1370 AM      

 

For more information, visit www.tricountyareachamber.com or contact 610.326.2900